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5月5日 Summary of 2007 Golden WeekFriday ( 4/27 )
- Apparently, everyone was smiling, heading for his lovely home. Not exceptional for me. Did a bit of cleanup, rearranging and transferring of Emule files. Add some Yoga, WestWing files. Saturday The first special day of the first public holiday was adorned by my sleepy little eye. It was due to spending extra 2-3 hours on watching fancy drame, Sex and the City the night before. I did a little study before set off for shinjuku. Instead of taking train from takadanobaba, i took a walk. To my surprise, it is much nearer compared to the last time. Well, actually i sprinted a bit from time to time. Sweating all in the back of my shirts, i was totally obsessed with digging out the best frame i could, in a korean shop in shinokubo. While waiting for the glasses to be ready, as planned before last night, i headed towards the nearest "Bookoff", a local book recycle shop. Fortuitously, i managed to grab a good one. The first shopping in 2 months! Tokyo weather is not unpredictable as the notorious London ones. The weather forecast was totally out of shot. The rain came down in buckets out of sudden. Everyone was so totally caught inside the subway station. It was a bit cold and some could not stop shivering. My shabby room finally shows its true colour. Dashing at full throttle took me about 30 seconds this time. A brand new record! Hooray ! Sunday One of my colleague, hirose told me he used to play table-tennis during campus life. That was a half-year-old "old" story. Finally, it was my chance to mark my words. We spent 3 hours in a sport center nearby. 2oo yen for 5 hours play. Pretty good deal! Although i'm not more crazed for table-tennis as what i did in primary school( 4 hours of training after school) and haven't played it since the stone age, thanks to my primary school table-tennis coach, my basic is still there. As a way of showing my gratitude, could i spill the beans? My coach used to be a national champions and national representative. A real reputable figure! After the play, we had a lundin(lunch-dinner coined phrase?) in MOSBurger. We spent hours and hours bad-mouthing other colleagues.( kidding ! ^.^) Monday My host father was partially paralyzed. It was a real shocked one when host mom told me bout that. I could never imagine that mountain-climbing enthusiast would end up as a hemiplegic patient. One year later, determination and patience finally paid. Now he can walk with the help of a crutch. We had a lunch in Yokohama Ukaitei as a celebration of my new life(Student Association's "secession") and his progress in rehabilitation. Sitting in front of wide hot plate, we were totally enthralled by the topnotch performance of the chef. Needless to say, the taste is undoubtedly the top-flight one. Tuesday --Drama day-- I finished some episodes of WestWing1. Wednesday --Music day-- Recategorizing my music collection. --WinningElevenDay--
I had a good fight with ShyoShyo. The result was 3-2. I m leading.
Thursday --Nabe day-- I did a bit of searching and was totally bombarded by the types of nabe. Friday --Quoted-- Kasai Rinkai Koen in Edogawa-ku is one of Tokyo's largest park, sprawling over 795,000 m2. Bordering the Tokyo Bay and separated from Tokyo Disneyland in Chiba prefecture by just the broad Edo River, it is an ideal place for a refreshing stroll, picnic or have fun with one's dogs. The park can be seen from afar thanks to its huge 117m high Ferris wheel, the tallest in Japan. The Flowers and Diamonds (admission 700yen, open from 10am to 8pm) as it is called carries 68 cars and the full rotation takes 17 minutes. The wheel offers great views on Disneyland, Tokyo Bay, Tokyo and even Mount Fuji on clear days (November to March being the clearest). The other main attraction is the Kasai Rinkai Aquarium (admission 700yen, open from 9:30am to 4pm), one of Kanto's finest. The aquarium is famous for its gigantic tunas an bonitos swimming like silvery robots around a 360 degree room. Apart from them, there are hammerhead sharks, angelfishes, surgeonfishes, anemones, morays, giant crabs, deep sea fishes, and fishes from all seven oceans. The other stars of the place are the many penguins and other sea birds. --end-- 4月28日 First day of 2007 Golden weekThe first special day of the first public holiday was adorned by my sleepy little eye. It was due to spending extra 2-3 hours on watching fancy drame, Sex and the City the night before. I did a little study before set off for shinjuku. Instead of taking train from takadanobaba, i took a walk. To my surprise, it is much nearer compared to the last time. Well, actually i sprinted a bit from time to time. Sweating all in the back of my shirts, i was totally obsessed with digging out the best frame i could, in a korean shop in shinokubo. While waiting for the glasses to be ready, as planned before last night, i headed towards the nearest "Bookoff", a local book recycle shop. Fortuitously, i managed to grab a good one. The first shopping in 2 months! Tokyo weather is not unpredictable as the notorious London ones. The weather forecast was totally out of shot. The rain came down in buckets out of sudden. Everyone was so totally caught inside the subway station. It was a bit cold and some could not stop shivering. My shabby room finally shows its true colour. Dashing at full throttle took me about 30 seconds this time. A brand new record! Hooray ! There is not much plan for the next few days. Am i going to hatch eggs at home ? No way, i swear to myself that i should hang on something. Bear in mind that this will be the longest holiday for me this year. Where should i go then? No place in Japan actually attracts me anymore. Sad ....... 8月31日 Revolutionizing FootballA startup venture, EndGame Technologies, has designed novel computer modeling software to assist National Football League coaches with critical play-calling decisions--the kind that often determine the outcome of the game. Should a team punt on fourth down--or go for it? Or attempt a two-point conversion after a touchdown? The software, called ZEUS, is designed to answer such questions by calculating the consequences of each decision in a matter of seconds. Head ZEUS researchers Chuck Bower and Frank Frigo want to revolutionize football by changing the way plays are called. Already, their statistics on past NFL games have revealed that teams consistently lose approximately one game per season by making the wrong play calls in critical situations. And with only 16 games in an NFL season, each win or loss is of paramount importance. Football is a game of strategy and risk management. Each coach goes into a game with a plan, explains Dwight Smith, head football coach at MIT. Although every variable is considered beforehand, adjustments have to be made as the game progresses. ZEUS is meant to help coaches make those on-the-fly decisions. The software was created by mining historical NFL data and developing distribution curves of success rates for individual actions, such as how far a running back carries the ball. Coaches could use ZEUS at any point in the game, by entering a set of variables, such as the score, field position, possession, down, and time remaining on the clock. Then the user enters two play-call options and the software analyzes each one separately, playing the game to its conclusion 100,000 times. During each iteration, ZEUS considers a different scenario. All the decisions about play calls that occur after the initial play are based on historical NFL data. This data isn't specific to a particular coach, though; it's based on records from a wide variety of coaches. (The researchers call this algorithm the "generic" NFL coach.) In a matter of seconds, ZEUS displays the Game Winning Chance--the play that gives the team the highest probability of winning. Unlike interactive football simulations, which require about the same amount of time to play out as a real game, ZEUS performs its calculations and recommendations in real time, displaying the computer's results before the next snap. According to Bower, the challenge for them now lies not in the technology, but in getting NFL teams to adopt it. "We have shown it to 10 NFL teams, [everyone] from managers to head coaches," he says. "But at this point no one has stepped forward and said we are ready to pay for the product." The problem: ZEUS is still illegal under NFL guidelines. The league doesn't permit computers on the sidelines or in the coach's booth on game day. Although there are no restrictions on using high-tech analytical tools off the field, the traditional elements of strategy continue to be preserved on game day. "We are very resistant to changing for the sake of changing," says Brain McCarthy, NFL spokesperson. "Part of the appeal of the NFL is that it is man against man against elements and unscripted drama. When you add technology that could directly influence play on the field it has the potential of detracting from the overall product and enjoyability of the game." Bower and Frigo aren't the only ones pushing for a technological revolution in the NFL. KC Joyner, called "The Football Scientist," and a regular contributor to ESPN Insider, uses game film to track, tabulate, and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. These statistics, complied and explained in Scientific Football 2006 (pdf), use a performance-based metric system with the goal of "quantifying everything and putting it into perspective." Joyner believes that if an NFL team doesn't take advantage of the latest technology, it will be hurt in the long term. "Nontechnological teams can still get good players, and some things will work, but as they get further behind the curve, it is going to catch up to them at some point," he says. Whether or not the league accepts ZEUS and teams decide to use it remains to be seen. For now, it can be implemented only in practice situations. Bower and Frigo recently added customization--the ability to enter the characteristics of specific teams--and also developed a second application, ZEUS PPV ("Player Position Value"), which determines the value in incremental wins/losses per season of individual position players. "Once [NFL] teams begin to embrace technology, the entire league will advance and be more successful," says Joyner, "It is going to take one successful coach looking for an edge, willing to take a chance." 8月18日 The alliance against GooglePRINCE KLEMENS VON METTERNICH, foreign minister of the Austrian Empire during the Napoleonic era and its aftermath, would have no trouble recognising Google. To him, the world's most popular web-search engine would closely resemble the Napoleonic France that in his youth humiliated Austria and Europe's other powers. Its rivals—Yahoo!, the largest of the traditional web gateways, eBay, the biggest online auction and trading site, and Microsoft, a software empire that owns MSN, a struggling web portal—would look a lot like Russia, Prussia, and Austria. Metternich responded by forging an alliance among those three monarchies to create a “balance of power” against France. Google's enemies, he might say, ought now to do the same thing. Google announced two new conquests on August 7th. It struck a deal with Viacom, an “old” media firm, under which it will syndicate video clips from Viacom brands such as MTV and Nickelodeon to other websites, and integrate advertisements into them. This makes Google the clear leader in the fledgling but promising market for web-video advertising. It also announced a deal with News Corporation, another media giant, under which it will provide all the search and text-advertising technology on News Corporation's websites, including MySpace, an enormously popular social-networking site. These are hard blows for Yahoo! and MSN, which had also been negotiating with News Corporation. Both firms have been losing market share in web search to Google over the past year—Google now has half the market. They have also fallen further behind in their advertising technologies and networks, so that both make less money than Google does from the same number of searches. Safa Rashtchy, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, a securities firm, estimates that for every advertising dollar that Google makes on a search query, Yahoo! makes only 60-70 cents. Last month Yahoo! said that a new advertising algorithm that it had designed to close the gap in profitability will be delayed, and its share price fell by 22%, its biggest-ever one-day drop. MSN is further behind Google than Yahoo! in search, and its parent, Microsoft, faces an even more fundamental threat from the expansionist new power. Many of Google's new ventures beyond web search enable users to do things free of charge through their web browsers that they now do using Microsoft software on their personal computers. Google offers a rudimentary but free online word processor and spreadsheet, for instance. The smaller eBay, on the other hand, might in one sense claim Google as an ally. Google's search results send a lot of traffic to eBay's auction site, and eBay is one of the biggest advertisers on Google's network. But the relationship is imbalanced. An influential recent study from Berkeley's Haas School of Business estimated that about 12% of eBay's revenues come indirectly from Google, whereas Google gets only 3% of its revenues from eBay. Worst of all for eBay, Google is starting to undercut its core business. Sellers are setting up their own websites and buying text advertisements from Google, and buyers are using its search rather than eBay to connect with sellers directly. As a result, “eBay would be wise to strike a deep partnership with Yahoo! or Microsoft in order to regain a balance of power in the industry,” said the study's authors, Julien Decot and Steve Lee, sounding like diplomats at the Congress of Vienna in 1814. The alliances are already being struck. Last year Yahoo! and Microsoft announced that they would connect their instant-messaging systems—both of which are much more popular than Google's alternative—and in July they said that they would extend this co-operation to “voice chat” (formerly known as “calling”). In May, Yahoo! and eBay struck an alliance in which eBay will use technology from Yahoo! to place advertisements on its auction site. On the other side of the bargain, Yahoo! will use PayPal, eBay's online payment mechanism, for transactions from Yahoo!'s pages. (Google recently launched a rival payment system of its own.) The strongest alliance, of course, would be a merger or takeover. MSN and Yahoo! both wanted to buy some or all of AOL, a big, troubled internet-access company owned by Time Warner, a media conglomerate. But Google pre-empted its rivals last winter and bought a defensive stake in AOL. It still has its search and advertising technology stationed on AOL's site. Google may also make its instant-messaging service interoperable with AOL's, the most popular in the world. Ally or annex?With AOL lost to the enemy, what of a deal between Microsoft and either Yahoo! or eBay? Justin Post, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, said recently that Microsoft's “acquisition probability” is now so high that it may soon start pushing up the share prices of eBay and Yahoo! Mr Post thinks that Microsoft is most likely to bid for Yahoo! This would help Microsoft strategically, he says. Others are not sure. “I don't see it as a terribly good merger,” says Mr Rashtchy. There would be big cultural differences between a media company and a software firm. He thinks that a merger of Yahoo! and eBay, on the other hand, might make sense because both live mainly from serving online communities. Paul Saffo, a Silicon Valley analyst and a fellow of the Institute for the Future, a research group, thinks that any merger between the three middle powers would be a “grand dramatic gesture” that would only hasten their decline. AOL's merger with Time Warner in 2000 is the relevant warning from recent history. Big mergers also run counter to a number of other trends on the internet today, which are collectively known as “Web 2.0”. “This is the age of mash-ups not mergers, open over closed,” says Mr Saffo, referring to the open internet standards that allow users to combine, or “mash” services. Another argument against full-blown mergers is that the bigger and more self-absorbed the established powers become, the less likely they are to spot new insurgencies—start-ups such as YouTube, an online video site, for instance, or MySpace. Their equivalents in Prince Metternich's day were the nationalist and liberal movements that troubled the continental monarchies, and erupted in the revolutions of 1848—forcing Metternich to resign and flee into exile in Britain. Affiliate marketing now coming of ageHalf my advertising budget is wasted, but I don't know which half," goes the old retailer's quip, but this dilemma may someday be a thing of the past. If so, affiliate marketing, a type of pay-for-performance advertising, will get some of the credit. It is an approach to marketing that is rapidly catching on with companies looking for a new, cost-effective way to reach customers. Leading the charge are companies like Tokyo-based ValueCommerce Co., whose president, Brian Nelson, explains the idea behind affiliate marketing: "(Clients) don't have to waste money on advertising. You're only paying for the benefit." Nelson was confident enough in his business model to list ValueCommerce shares on the Mothers market for startups on July 31. In affiliate marketing, someone might write about a new product on a blog. If someone reads the blog and purchases the product, the blogger, or affiliate, gets a commission on the sale. ValueCommerce, a pioneer in affiliate marketing in Japan with a 25 percent market share, makes money from commissions it receives by linking affiliates with online shopping malls and other e-commerce firms. Nelson became the chief operating officer in 2001, two years after the company was founded. Business has been good. The company posted a net profit of 173 million yen on sales of 4.0 billion yen in the business year through December. This year, ValueCommerce expects to make 497 million yen on sales of 5.4 billion yen. Unlike traditional advertising, where sellers pay a fixed price for space in a newspaper, magazine or Web site, in affiliate marketing the advertiser pays only when a sale is made, assuring the advertiser that its money is well spent. Nelson, a native of California, said the affiliate marketing industry is underdeveloped in Japan and has huge potential to grow. "People have only understood affiliate marketing over the last two years," Nelson said in a recent interview. "A lot of companies are starting to understand the benefit they get by using a pay-for-performance model." According to Nomura Securities Financial & Economic Research Center, the affiliate marketing industry in Japan has grown nearly eightfold in the last three years, from 5 billion yen in 2002 to 39 billion yen in 2005. It forecasts sales of 76 billion yen by 2007. Although affiliate marketing had already taken off in the United States and Europe when ValueCommerce was founded in 1999, it was slower to catch on in Japan. "The Japanese market was not using as many credit cards for online payments in 1999," Nelson said. "There were still many bank transfers and postal transfers, so we had to build a system that worked for the Japanese market." Seven years on, ValueCommerce has some 175,000 affiliates, of which 80 percent are individuals, and 1,650 e-commerce companies as clients. Last year, it entered into a tieup with Yahoo Japan Corp. Despite the growth, and perhaps because of it, the market has had teething problems. Some shady affiliates, for example, impersonate others to try to cash in on their hard-earned reputations. ValueCommerce and six other major affiliate marketing companies responded by setting up the Japan Affiliate Service Kyokai in May. The association will draw up guidelines for business practices by fall, monitor unethical behavior and educate the public about the industry. These challenges have not daunted Nelson, who remains optimistic about his company's future. His next target is to expand into other Asian markets, including South Korea and China. He noted that South Korea's high Internet penetration makes it easier for ValueCommerce to operate there. China, on the other hand, presents more of a challenge. Although there are about 40 million broadband users and 100 million Internet users in China overall -- mostly cell phone subscribers -- there are only 2 million credit card holders, he said. Coming up with a payment system for those cell phone buyers is the key. "There is a unique opportunity to think about how to make payments and different ways to advance pay-for-performance models in China," Nelson said. フレームワークの役割Zopeとは、ひとことで言うと Pythonで書かれたオープンソースのWebアプリケーションサーバです。主な特徴としては、
などがあります。
Cocoa
Mac OS Xに実装されている開発環境の一つ。Mac OS X開発の基盤となった旧NeXT社のOS「OPENSTEP」の流れを受け継ぐ環境で、Mac OS Xの機能をフルに引き出したソフトウェアをオブジェクト指向に基づいて開発することができる。 Mac OS Xには開発環境として、Mac OS 9互換モードの「Classic」、ClassicにMac OS Xの新機能を取り込んだ「Carbon」、Sun Microsystems社のJava環境が用意されているが、Mac OS Xネイティブの新しい環境としてCocoaが用意されている。Cocoaを使うことにより、Mac OS 9までにはなかった「Aqua」グラフィックインターフェースや、プリエンプティブなマルチタスク、保護されたメモリ空間などの新機能を、洗練されたオブジェクト指向APIを通じて容易に利用することができる。開発言語としてはOPENSTEP標準だった「Objective-C」やJavaが利用できる。Turbine Turbine is a servlet based framework that allows experienced Java developers to quickly build web applications. Turbine allows you to use personalize the web sites and to use user logins to restrict access to parts of your application. Turbine is a matured and well established framework that is used as the base of many other projects (like e.g. the excellent Jetspeed 1 Portals framework. Turbine is an excellent choice for developing applications that make use of a services-oriented architecture. Some of the functionality provided with Turbine includes a security management system, a scheduling service, XML-defined form validation server, and an XML-RPC service for web services. It is a simple task to create new services particular to your application. The Turbine core is free of any dependency on a presentation layer technology. Both JavaServer Pages (JSP) and Velocity are supported inside Turbine. For developers already familiar with JSP, or have existing JSP tag libraries, Turbine offers support for the Sun standard. Velocity is the favorite view technology of most users of the Turbine framework; try it out and see if Velocity can help you develop your web applications faster and work more easily with non-programming designers. Turbine is developed in an open, participatory environment and released under the Apache Software License. Turbine is intended to be a collaboration of the best-of-breed developers from around the world. We invite you to participate in this open development project.
Drupal Drupal is software that allows an individual or a community of users to easily publish, manage and organize a great variety of content on a website. Tens of thousands of people and organizations have used Drupal to set up scores of different kinds of web sites, including
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CakePHP Cake is a rapid development framework for PHP which uses commonly known design patterns like ActiveRecord, Association Data Mapping, Front Controller and MVC. Our primary goal is to provide a structured framework that enables PHP users at all levels to rapidly develop robust web applications, without any loss to flexibility. RubyOnRails Rails is a full-stack framework for developing database-backed web applications according to the Model-View-Control pattern. From the Ajax in the view, to the request and response in the controller, to the domain model wrapping the database, Rails gives you a pure-Ruby development environment. To go live, all you need to add is a database and a web server. Everyone from startups to non-profits to enterprise organizations are using Rails. Rails is all about infrastructure so it's a great fit for practically any type of web application Be it software for collaboration, community, e-commerce, content management, statistics, management, you name it. Rails works with a wealth of web servers and databases. For web server, we recommend Apache or lighttpd, running either FastCGI or SCGI, or Mongrel. For database, you can use MySQL, PostgreSQL, SQLite, Oracle, SQL Server, DB2, or Firebird. Just about any operating system will do, but we recommend a 'nix-based one for deployment. Subliminal SearchThe number of images recorded by security cameras each day vastly exceeds human analysts' ability to examine them. "Computer vision" systems aren't much help: they're still far too primitive to tell a prowler from a postman. But researchers say the human brain can subconsciously register an anomaly in a scene -- say, a shadow where there shouldn't be one -- much faster than a person can visually and verbally identify it. If computers could somehow monitor the brain and flag these "aha" moments, surveillance analysts might be able to scan many times more images per hour. That's what Paul Sajda, a bioengineer at Columbia University's Laboratory for Intelligent Imaging and Neural Computing, hopes to enable with his "cortically coupled computer vision" system, or "C3Vision." Sajda's prototype, built with a grant from the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, includes a bonnet of electrodes that is placed on a subject's head, where it monitors changes in the brain's electrical activity. A computer scrutinizes those changes for the neural signatures of interesting events and images, as the subject watches a video running at 10 times its normal speed. The flagged images are picked out for a more intensive examination. "We are aiming to speed up [visual] search by 300 percent," says Sajda. "The system is designed not only for finding very specific targets but also things image analysts think are 'unusual,' which is very difficult to do with a computer vision system." Such devices could help law enforcement or counterterrorism officials spot signs of suspicious activity that would otherwise slip by as they scanned surveillance images. "Any system that can help process those images and prioritize them as to likelihood of containing important data is a vast improvement over the current situation," says Leif Finkel, a professor of bioengineering at the University of Pennsylvania, who was Sajda's doctoral thesis advisor. Outside the security realm, radiologists hooked up to the C3Vision system could quickly screen hundreds of mammograms to identify those requiring a closer look, and photo researchers could use it to single out pictures of a particular person among the millions of photographs on the Web. "People are amazingly accurate at identifying whether a particular image -- say, of Marilyn Monroe, or the Washington Monument -- was presented as one photo" in a series of hundreds, even at a speed of 10 to 20 images per second, says Finkel. According to Sajda's recent tests, subjects spotted 90 percent of the "suspicious" images in a series running at 10 images per second. "I think that it is too early to tell whether this particular approach is going to work in real applications," says Misha Pavel, a professor of biomedical engineering at Oregon Health Sciences University. "But I have no doubt that we will learn from this approach, and the consequences may be entirely unexpected, novel applications." 7月31日 EU membership sharpens Central, East Europe's competitive edgeCentral and East European countries will continue to have a comparative advantage as destinations of foreign direct investment, although the changing environment will oblige them to diversify further into more service and knowledge-intensive sectors, said a researcher from the Japan External Trade Organization.
A recent JETRO survey shows that a majority of Japanese firms planning to build new manufacturing operations in Europe consider central and eastern parts of the region as candidate sites, Masakazu Tachikawa, director of the Europe Division of JETRO's Overseas Research Department, told the July 19 symposium. The accession of eight former Soviet bloc nations into the European Union in 2004 has contributed to improved business infrastructure in those countries, where low-cost and highly educated labor remains an advantage over the so-called old EU members, Tachikawa said. According to Tachikawa, the annual volume of foreign direct investment in Central and Eastern Europe, which stood at around 10 billion euros in the mid-1990s, began to pick up in 1997 as the process for the countries' entry into the EU accelerated, and topped 30 billion euros in 2004 and 2005. Investment by Japanese firms in the region has also increased since the late 1990s and, despite ups and downs over the years, topped 50 billion yen in 2003, he said. As of late 2005, the Czech Republic was the fourth-largest destination of Japanese manufacturing firms in Europe -- after Britain, Germany and France -- and two other Central and East European nations -- Hungary and Poland -- were among the top 10 countries, Tachikawa told the audience. The number of local subsidiaries of Japanese manufacturers in the region has more than doubled during the past five years, he added. In the 15 years since the end of communist rule, the region has become a major manufacturing base for European, Japanese and other Asian automakers, including Volkswagen, Renault, Fiat, Toyota, Suzuki, Hyundai and Daewoo. Poland hosts production facilities of European, American and Asian manufacturers of household electrical goods such as refrigerators, washing machines and air conditioners. The Czech Republic has become a key production base for the world's computer industry while Hungary has attracted large amounts of investment from information technology firms, Tachikawa said. In the run-up to their EU accession in 2004, the Central and East European countries offered incentives to foreign manufacturers to make them more attractive than their counterparts in the west, including establishment of special economic zones, reduction/exemption of corporate tax, and lower tariffs on imports of production facilities, he said. The foreign manufacturers in turn were attracted by the low-cost, highly educated labor in the region, where wage levels were one-fifth to one-sixth of Western Europe, Tachikawa said. Under the association agreements signed with the prospective members, the EU basically eliminated tariffs to imports from those countries in 1997, giving investors in the region tariff-free access to the EU market, he added. How has the investment environment changed since their accession to the EU? As one of the positive changes, Tachikawa pointed to improved logistics efficiency due to simplified customs procedures, including border checks on cargo, between the new members and the rest of the union. He also cited greater transparency of legal systems due to harmonization to EU standards, as well as infrastructure improvement with the use of EU funds for less developed members. On the other hand, the accession has obliged the Central and East European countries to either scale down or abolish the investment incentives to conform to the framework of EU competition policy, Tachikawa said. For example, they have had to discontinue the exemption of customs tariffs on imports of production equipment. Conformity to EU standards resulted in tightened regulations, including those on the environment, he said. Tachikawa also pointed to the sharp rise in personnel costs in the Central and East European countries, with some estimates showing that wage levels in the region have doubled in the 10 years since 1995. A JETRO survey shows that labor costs in Budapest, which were one-seventh of those in Dusseldorf, Germany, three years ago, have increased to one-fourth the level, he said. But the figures also show that the new EU members still retain a steep labor cost advantage over the old members, he added. The rising costs put the new EU members at a comparative disadvantage against non-EU members in the area such as Romania and Ukraine, which has prompted them to shift the target of investment promotion from labor-intensive sectors to knowledge-intensive sectors such as service industries and research and development, Tachikawa said. Foreign investment in the service sector is in fact on the rise, including the establishment of a shared service center of Philips in Poland, a British Telecom call center in Hungary and regional headquarters of Hewlett-Packard in the Czech Republic, he said. Investment in automobile sectors has continued after the accession, including the recent new projects by Kia and PSA Peugeot Citroen in Slovakia and Hyundai in the Czech Republic. Tachikawa also pointed to a series of investments by liquid crystal display TV makers and component manufacturers, many of them in the Czech Republic and Poland. While labor costs in the Central and East European countries are higher than in China, they still retain an advantage in terms of their access to the European market because many of the products manufactured in the region are for consumption in Europe, Tachikawa said. Overall, Tachikawa said Central and Eastern Europe will remain a promising region. The lingering huge economic gap with the old EU members to the west means that they have the potential for continued high growth, he said. Average growth rate in the region between 2005 and 2007 is estimated to be in the 4 percent range, compared to 2 percent in Western Europe, he added. Is bigger better for European Union?The European Union's historic expansion in May 2004 took eight new Central and East European members into its fold. But what has the process Einitially started in the early 1990s following the fall of the Berlin Wall Ebrought to the former communist countries in the Soviet bloc? And two years after the expansion, many EU countries appear to be gripped with "enlargement fatigue." Will it be a temporary phenomena or will it affect the region's long-term future? These were among the questions addressed by panelists during the July 19 symposium at Keidanren Kaikan, organized jointly by the Keizai Koho Center and the Japanese-German Center Berlin under the theme, "Transition and attractiveness of Central and Eastern European markets in enlargement of the EU." In May 2004, the EU expanded its membership to 25 by admitting eight former communist countries Ethe Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia Ealong with Cyprus and Malta. For some of the new members, the process for accession began as early as in 1991, when Hungary, Poland and what was then Czechoslovakia signed association agreements with the EU. "What did we get from the EU in those 15 years? The most important thing .EE was the purpose to carry out necessary but painful reforms," said Marek Belka, former prime minister of Poland and executive secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. "The driving force behind pro-market reforms in all these countries was the prospect of membership." According to Belka, the essence of the 1991 association agreement was that the future EU members obliged themselves to gradually introduce the common body of EU law and regulations. "Every piece of legislation passed in Poland after this date had to conform (to the EU laws and regulations) and if not we were to explain why and impose a certain escape clause or transition period," he said. "The implicit deal between the EU and accession countries was that, 'OK, we'll accept you, but you have to do everything possible, or even more than possible, to modernize, and we'll help you,'E he added. In the run-up to the accession, Poland and other prospective members got enhanced status as future EU members, which carried better ratings and more foreign direct investment, Belka said. They received policy know-how from the EU as well as financial assistance, but what was much more important was this "purpose" to reform, he told the audience.
Many Central and East European countries changed governments every two years and ruling parties frequently alternated, but "what we had was a general continuity of economic policies, because of a broad political consensus behind reforms (supported) by this prospect of (EU) membership," Belka noted. According to Belka, the cost of accession, in the case of Poland, was "mainly psychological and social." "Every change is painful, even a change for the better, and if you have a major change or systemic change, you're going to have losers and winners. The problem is that losers perceive it very clearly .EE and losers scream much louder than winners. "The social cost of transition was quite heavy because we had to do in 15 years what took 50 years or maybe 300 years in some other countries, and I'm not exaggerating," he noted. Unfounded fears
What has happened since May 2004? Many of the economic fears forecast before the accession Einflation and budgetary crisis Edid not materialize, Belka said. Poland and other new members received increased investor interest and more tourism. While the opening of the EU labor market remains partial today as some old members decided to delay accepting workers from the new entrants, Belka said it seems the outflow of the labor force toward Western Europe is gaining momentum, at least in Poland. A brain drain can be a serious problem once the EU labor market opening accelerates, he said. Better access to Western European education institutions triggered a flood of youths from the new member countries taking up education in the west not only in universities but in high schools, he added. Belka brushed aside the fear voiced by Euroskeptics who argued that Central and Eastern Europe, after taking orders from Moscow, were now losing sovereignty to Brussels "because the significance of new EU member countries like Poland or Hungary has increased only after joining the EU." Alfred Steinherr, director of the department of macroanalysis and forecasting at the German Institute for Economic Research, described the EU enlargement as a "success story" in the sense that the Central and Eastern Europe countries have successfully shed their former socialist characteristics Ealbeit to varying degrees Eand achieved a transition to market economy. "The new EU members are a diverse group of countries some are more successful than others but they all share one thing in their diversity that they are successfully converging," Steinherr told the audience. One remarkable feature about reforms in the new EU members, Steinherr said, is that they did not simply try to copy the leading economies of old Europe. "When they moved away from the socialist camp, most of them thought that the job was simply to copy and paste, to become like the leading countries of old Europe. But the more they looked (to their neighbors in the west) the more they realized that it might not be the best idea .EE that you have to do something a bit more challenging, you have to become better than them," he said.
The most remarkable example is Estonia, which created an institutional framework and built a much more flexible labor market, Steinherr noted. Steinherr also lauded the new member countries for not imitating old Europe in trying to protect national industries, citing the example of Hungary, which decided to allow foreign institutions to take over its financial business as a way to quickly improve efficiency in the sector. Such reforms would not have been imaginable in old EU members, he said, adding that Hungary and others that followed "got a reasonable, well-performing financial sector much quicker than if they had tried on their own." Bigger and better?
What has changed in the EU as a whole as a result of the 2004 enlargement? Belka noted that the economic impact was limited because despite the addition of countries with a combined population of 75 million, their combined gross domestic product accounted for only 5 percent of the total GDP of the EU. But he emphasized that the enlargement has redefined the EU's foreign policy agenda. "The eastward enlargement made countries like Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Turkey immediate neighbors of the European Union not just distant neighbors with whom we could discuss all sorts of partnership relations, but immediate neighbors with which we share borders," Belka said. He pointed out that the Orange Revolution in Ukraine took place only a few months after the enlargement. "I think it was the Polish accession that prompted immediate EU involvement in an attempt to solve the crisis in Kiev," he said. The second consequence of enlargement probably more important from an economic viewpoint is the change in policy discourse, Belka told the audience. "Suddenly the accession of 10 rather tiny economies with divergent recent economic histories prompted discussion on issues like flat tax, pension reforms, labor market flexibility and so on. .EE We became more liberal in a sense," he said. 'Enlargement fatigue'
One of the major topics among the speakers was the so-called "enlargement fatigue" that has spread across Europe following the historic expansion. Michael Reiterer, charge d'affaires of the delegation of the European Commission to Japan, said it is extremely important to recognize the strategic value of the process of enlargement "especially in the face of recent indications of 'enlargement fatigue' across Europe." While he stressed that the enlargement that brought the 10 new members was a "success," resulting in positive economic effects to new and old EU members, Reiterer said it was "time to build a new consensus on the process of enlargement, which should enhance the EU's self-interest in extending the zone of peace and prosperity in Europe while at the same time ensuring the EU's capacity to function effectively." He admitted that the EU "has become more cautious about taking on new commitments" for accession, although he emphasized that it is "absolutely willing to honor its existing commitments already in process" for Bulgaria and Romania. The 2005 Accession Treaty says the two countries will join the EU in January 2007, although the European Council may decide to postpone the accession for a year. Despite the growing wariness toward accepting more new members, Reiterer said it would be "unwise" for the EU not to use enlargement as its "most effective policy tool" to promote transformation of the countries involved. Belka said that the 2004 enlargement was a "success that nobody was really well prepared in Western Europe to consume and digest." "Many politicians started thinking, 'Well, we have to do something, we have to appease our electorate and we have to say what are the limits of Europe," he said. Belka said an agreement at a recent Council of Europe meeting Ethat the absorptive capacity of the EU and public opinion will be considered when making decisions on future enlargement Ewill in fact put some brakes on the process. "But I'm not that pessimistic because Europeans have to digest the two shocks that they have gone through recently the introduction of the euro and the enlargement." Belka said that the new member countries themselves are also hit by "fatigue" following their accession a fatigue from reforms. "We are tired, too. We have achieved a lot in 15 years and people think that the stakes are now lower in politics, that the political consensus that was behind the reform process throughout the whole transition period is now broken. "For populist politicians it's a bonanza. You can say whatever you want, they're not going to kick us out of the EU," he said, suggesting that such sentiments are behind the results of recent elections in some new member states that marked setbacks for reformists. But Belka said he believes that it is a temporary hiccup "because the positive effects of the (EU) membership will dominate, overwhelm fears and will civilize the most populist trends."
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